ARK Invest Projects Bitcoin Could Reach $2.4 Million by 2030
ARK Invest Raises 2030 Bitcoin Price Forecast to $2.4 Million in Bullish Scenario
U.S.-based investment firm ARK Invest has updated its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, significantly increasing its 2030 price projection in its bullish scenario. The previous forecast of $1.5 million per Bitcoin has now been raised to $2.4 million, reflecting growing institutional interest and Bitcoin’s expanding role as “digital gold.”
The revised outlook was published by ARK Invest analyst David Puell. Alongside the bullish case, the report also includes updated bear and base case projections. The bear case was raised from $300,000 to $500,000, while the base case increased from $710,000 to $1.2 million. These adjustments are driven by Bitcoin’s rising share in the total addressable market (TAM) and its positioning within the global financial system.
Institutional Demand Drives Long-Term Potential
According to ARK’s analysis, institutional adoption remains a key driver of Bitcoin’s future growth. The firm estimates that Bitcoin could reach a 6.5% penetration rate in the global financial asset market, which is valued at around $200 trillion. This level of adoption is seen as attainable if institutional interest in digital assets continues to build momentum.
Bitcoin is also gaining traction among investors in emerging markets, where high inflation and currency devaluation are pushing individuals toward alternative stores of value. The trend indicates growing demand for Bitcoin both in developed and developing economies, reinforcing its role as a global hedge asset.
Market Cap Could Surpass U.S. and China GDP Combined
If ARK Invest’s $2.4 million projection materializes, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization would reach approximately $49.2 trillion. This would exceed the current combined GDP of the United States and China and more than double gold’s estimated market cap of $22.5 trillion. Such a move would signify Bitcoin’s rise as a global reserve asset potentially rivaling or replacing gold.
The report suggests that to reach these targets by 2030, Bitcoin would need to compound annually at rates ranging from 32% (bear case) to 53% (base case). While ambitious, ARK believes these growth rates are within reach, given Bitcoin’s historical performance and the current macroeconomic environment.
Market Recovery Signals Renewed Momentum
Following a recent dip to around $75,000, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, climbing back toward the $95,000 mark. This rebound suggests growing confidence among investors and the potential for continued upward momentum.
ARK Invest’s updated projections emphasize a long-term structural perspective rather than short-term price action. Key factors underpinning this outlook include sustained institutional engagement, regulatory clarity, and increasing demand for inflation-resistant assets. These dynamics could mark the beginning of a new era in Bitcoin’s investment narrative.
